IS has reshaped the jihadist landscape: its strategy bloodier than that of al-Qaeda, from which it split in 2013 its declared caliphate across much of Iraq and Syria and grip on a Libyan coastal strip thousands of foreigners and dozens of movements enlisted its attacks in the Muslim world and the West. The geography of crisis today means similar groups will blight many of tomorrow’s wars. Most appear resilient, able to adapt to shifting dynamics. Yet, they espouse, to varying degrees, goals incompatible with the nation-state system, rejected by most people in areas affected and hard to accommodate in negotiated settlements. Little suggests they can be defeated by military means alone. Some movements are now powerful insurgent forces, controlling territory, supplanting the state and ruling with a calibrated mix of coercion and co-option. The reach of “jihadists” (a term Crisis Group uses reluctantly but that groups this report covers self-identify with a fuller explanation for its use is on page 2) has expanded dramatically over the past few years. Most important is that action against “violent extremism” not distract from or deepen graver threats, notably escalating major- and regional-power rivalries.

Vital, too, is to de-escalate the crises they feed off and prevent others erupting, by nudging leaders toward dialogue, inclusion and reform and reacting sensibly to terrorist attacks. This means distinguishing between groups with different goals using force more judiciously ousting militants only with a viable plan for what comes next and looking to open lines of communication, even with hardliners. Reversing their gains requires avoiding the mistakes that enabled their rise. They have exploited wars, state collapse and geopolitical upheaval in the Middle East, gained new footholds in Africa and pose an evolving threat elsewhere.

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Shallow space insurgency